INDEPENDENT EXPENDITURE CASE STUDY
ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 74, 2024 GENERAL ELECTION

OVERVIEW

Despite Assemblywoman Laurie Davies’ strong record as a legislator, the nature of the 74th Assembly District required her to run aggressive campaigns every election to ensure her victory. 

In 2024, Democrat Chris Duncan was back for another fight and was once again supported by the California Democratic Party, who had financed his 2022 campaign with upward of a million dollars.

In 2022, Davies bested Duncan by 9,231 votes (5.2%) –– winning Orange County by 12,998 votes (15%) but losing San Diego County by 3,827 votes (5.6%). At that time, polling had shown that results would likely break in a partisan fashion by county, so our earlier (2022) IE effort focused on minimizing Duncan's margin in San Diego County. The final outcome showed that the effort by both the Davies campaign and the IEs on her behalf were successful.  

In 2024, however, we expected the challenge for Davies to be tougher as a result of higher voter turnout and a Democratic base motivated to once again defeat Donald Trump. In March 2024, Davies exceeded her 2022 primary margin over Duncan and (unlike the 2022 primary), bested Duncan in San Diego County.  

At the same time, we knew that the 2024 general election would have a different voting universe. In the November 2020 election, Republicans in this district outnumbered Democrats by around 1,500 votes, yet Biden won by 6%. So, clearly this district could be won by either party in a presidential election. 

The county break also would change from 2022. In November 2022, San Diego County turnout here was 1,291 votes higher than in Orange County, while in November 2020, the San Diego County turnout advantage was 9,106 higher than Orange County. Given that Biden won by 6% with an equal registration balance between the two major parties, it was clear that independents were the swing voters.

In particular, San Diego County independents were the key to victory in this district, so we determined they would be our highest priority. To win, Duncan needed bigger numbers in the more Democratic San Diego County to offset Davies' numbers in Orange County. And since San Diego County represents a larger percentage of voters (55%), his gaining the advantage was a real possibility if he could run up the score there.

We believed a winning margin for Davies in 2024 would be under 2%. So, if our clients wanted to help ensure a Davies’ victory, we would need to triple our 2022 budget. The campaign we produced was effective and impactful for Davies — and our clients — and our winning effort was actually chosen as one of the top three independent expenditure campaigns in the country by the National Association of Political Consultants. 

STRATEGY

Facing a polarized electorate in a district where the GOP would only have a 1,500-vote advantage (00.6%) in the 2024 general, we needed to blunt Duncan in San Diego County. We would accomplish this by convincing swing voters to go with Davies and by picking up some moderate Democrats along the way. In addition, we would give Davies a stronger cushion by helping increase Davies’ support among Orange County independents.

Our IE coalition in 2024 was led by DaVita, JOBS PAC, and Coalition to Restore California's Middle Class.

BATTLEPLAN

Survey Research

Initial survey research confirmed that our preliminary assumptions were correct and our suggested strategy sound. In addition, we obtained updated research on Duncan that helped us develop effective messages to weaken his image and position with our target voters.

Messaging Pro-Davies

Our messaging on Davies focused on her tangible efforts to keep voters safe and protect their hard-earned money. We had strong endorsements from tax fighters and public safety groups, as well as community leaders who could point to Davies’ work protecting the coastline. These messages and message carriers were effective in 2022 as well as 2024.

Messaging Anti-Duncan

Duncan was vulnerable on taxes and personal pay raises –– a selfish politician who was looking out for himself, not the community. We painted a very negative picture of Duncan with these issues and knew they were effective because we had used them successfully in 2022. And with a larger budget in 2024, we were able to drive these messages even harder –– especially in San Diego County — which was essential to our success.

Tactics

We utilized direct mail, digital pre-roll video, and broadcast television.

THE CAMPAIGN

In mid-September 2024, we started our voter contact campaign. DaVita funded a positive program for Davies that ran non-stop until election day, targeting swing voters. Polling showed the positive message solidified our strong margin in Orange County as well as our lean Davies voters in San Diego County.

In early October 2024, we started our anti-Duncan messaging program funded by JOBS PAC. Polling showed that this effort pushed key voters in our direction even further. 

We entered the last three weeks of the campaign having reached our target margin in Orange County, but having not yet closed the gap to our satisfaction in San Diego County. We all felt more needed to be done. So, our coalition partner JOBS PAC reached out to Coalition to Restore California's Middle Class for additional financial assistance. 

We felt that the addition of a strong anti-Duncan message on San Diego broadcast TV would have a significant impact — and be the difference between a Davies’ victory or defeat. The Coalition to Restore California's Middle Class quickly agreed and we were able to get the ad written, produced, approved, and on the air in less than five days.

Being able to launch this TV ad with strong reach and frequency in the last two weeks of the campaign helped us reach the voters we needed to win. The final election results proved that this closing push was decisive.

RESULTS

As expected, the outcome of the race was very close –– the margin of victory for Davies was 1.6%. Davies was successful at dampening Duncan’s margin in San Diego County to the 10% goal we had set. Meanwhile, the Davies’ margin of victory in Orange County stayed at a healthy 14% — again, hitting the mark we had set before the campaign began.

Without a doubt, this IE was instrumental in the ultimate outcome of the Davies race. We focused on the right voters in the right area of the district, delivered the right message, and successfully drew a stark and much-needed contrast between Davies and Duncan. It combined district and candidate awareness, smart strategy, good messaging, and effective voter contact materials. And we fought right up to election day, leaving it "all on the field" to ensure victory for Davies and our clients.